Analysis of Tesla’s “robotaxis” by Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley published an analysis that we found interesting to better understand Elon Musk’s Robotaxi program. For them, this announcement, scheduled for August 8, not only marks a potential shift for the company towards an economic model more focused on AI and robotics, but also reveals Tesla’s ambitious vision for the future of transportation and beyond.

Promising Adjacent Applications

With a current fleet of 5 million vehicles, Tesla does not just collect visual data for training its neural networks. This massive database also serves as the foundation for a range of adjacent applications, from aviation to robotics, and even potentially humanoid robots that could one day tackle the estimated $30 trillion global labor market .

A Catalyst for Autonomous Driving

The August 8 event could also reignite the debate on the relevance of including Tesla in discussions and portfolios focused on AI. Tesla’s ability to create value, particularly through its efforts in custom semiconductors and at exaFLOP scale, could solve some of the world’s most complex problems, like autonomy. Beyond its internal initiatives such as Dojo, Tesla positions itself as one of NVIDIA’s largest customers, highlighting the strategic importance of its IT investments.

Tesla’s Mobility Model: Projections and Values

Morgan Stanley details its key assumptions for Tesla’s mobility model:

• Launch and Expansion: Commissioning of the mobility service is planned for 2026 with 1,000 units, reaching 157,500 units by 2030 (or 0.6% of Tesla’s global fleet), and 1.7 million units of here 2035. Much of the fleet would be operated by humans in the early phases.
• Income and Growth: Tesla mobility revenue is expected to start below $1 billion in 2027, rising to $17 billion in 2030, with a forecast of 9.5 billion miles traveled per month, then 119 billion miles per month. by 2035.
• Valuation: The valuation assigned to Tesla Mobility stands at $61 per share, roughly equivalent to the valuation of Tesla’s core automotive business, representing about 20% of Morgan Stanley’s $310 price target. .

Conclusion

The upcoming announcement of Tesla’s robotaxi is shaping up not only to be a potential turning point for the company but also a defining moment for the auto and technology industry. Drawing on its expertise in AI and robotics, Tesla aims to redefine mobility and, potentially, other sectors around the world. As the date of August 8 draws closer, eyes will be on Tesla, anticipating revelations that could well shape the technological and economic future of our society.